Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/5/25)

MLB

2 Picks (7 Units).

6:40PM EST: Marlins First 5 Innings ML +130 (3 Units).

LP: S. Alcantara (+130).

MIA SP Sandy Alcantara has an 8.31 ERA and an xERA of 6.37. He has a few decent starts under his belt but when he's been off it's been ugly. He actually just gave up 7ER to these Dodgers across 2.2 IP in LA his last time out. Alcantara won the NL Cy Young in 2022. He would go on to struggle in 2023 before getting Tommy John Surgery. He missed all of the 2024 season and just returned to action this year. It's been a mixed bag of results, but the stuff is still there. His Velo is down ever so slightly from his 2022 levels but his Spin Rates higher in 4 of 5 pitches. His Horizontal and Vertical movement is nearly identical to 2022 as well. He's a heavy sinker baller that won a Cy Young keeping the ball down.

His struggles have been all about control. He has a career BB/9 of 2.82 but it's 5.88 so far this year. That's something that will continue to improve as the season moves along. He's been much better at Home, posting a 4.64 ERA in 4 starts with a .192 opponent BA and 1.17 WHIP. He has 10 walks on 21.2 IP at Home compared to 7 on 4.2 IP (2 Starts) on the road. The stuff's there and it's going to click for him eventually. He's been decent at Home as it is and hasn't allowed more than 3 runs through 5 IP in his 4 Home starts. His struggles last week can also work to his advantage. If he's sharper today the Dodgers eyes will register one thing, but the result will be another. You see stuff like that within division starts and the playoffs all the time.

On the other end the Dodgers are going bullpen day. They open with Lefty Jack Dreyer who hasn't pitched more than 2 innings in an outing. The Marlins are at least league average against LHP. They'll see at least 1 other pitcher and ideally 2 before the 5th inning is over. One guy struggles out of the bullpen and the Marlins can plate a few.

7:15PM ESTL Reds ML +125 (4 Units).

LP: B. Singer (CIN) / AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL).

Brady Singer has allowed 3 ER or less in every start this season. He has a 3.24 ERA and a 3.64 xERA. He's pretty much cut the sweeper out of his arsenal and drastically cut down on his slider usage. He's replaced those pitches with a cutter, and it's worked wonders to keep hitters off his hard stuff. His off-speed has always graded out well but his Fastball/Sinker had a tendency to get hit hard. Through the early going hitters are batting .178 against his Sinker, and .182 exactly against his 4-Seam and Cutter. Atlanta's offense has mustered just 9 combined runs through their last 4 games.

ATL SP AJ Smith-Shawver has a 4.26 ERA but an xERA of 6.53. His most recent start was cut short after taking a 105 MPH line drive off his throwing arm. There's nothing positive coming from that. His xwOBA is in the bottom 6% of baseball and xwOBACON in the bottom 1%. He left his last start allowing 2 ER on 5.1 IP at Colorado, but the Rockies still had 8 Hard-Hit balls against him. They just didn't get the results. The Reds bats were stymied by Lefty Mackenzie Gore yesterday, but Cinci scored 21 total runs and at least 6 in each of their first 3 games in May.