Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/11/25)

MLB

3 Picks (11 Units).

2:10PM EST: Royals -1.5 +175 (3 Units).

LP: L. Giolito (BOS) / S. Lugo (KC).

This will be Lucas Giolito's 3rd start of the year. He allowed 3ER on 6 IP at Toronto in his first and 6 ER on 10.2 IP in his 2nd. Having spent most of his career with the White Sox in the AL Central the Royals are plenty familiar with him. The current Royals roster has 122 career plate appearances against Giolito with a .291 BA and .385 wOBA. KC's been swinging the bats well, ranking 4th in OPS in the Month of May. KC SP Seth Lugo has a 2.84 ERA through 8 starts. He had a 3.0 ERA in 33 starts for the Royals last year and a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres 2 years back. He's a frontline starter and he's backed by an elite Royals bullpen that has all their high leverage arms not just ready but fresh.

2:10PM EST: Giants ML +135 (3 Units).

LP: L. Roupp (SF).

Landen Roupp continues to dodge barrels, ranking in the top 2% in Hard-Hit rate. He has a 4.89 ERA but an xERA of 3.44. He allowed 2 ER on 5 IP at Chicago his last time out. The Twins have just 1 career plate appearance against Roupp and they're 18th in OPS this Month. The Giants bullpen currently leads the league in ERA and they've had just 2 relievers pitch the last 3 days. Roupp isn't one for length and that's not an issue here. He likely goes a couple times through the order before passing it off. MIN SP Pablo Lopez has been stellar, but he's pitched more than 5 innings in just 2 of 6 starts. He's recorded 5IP in each of his 2 Home starts. Minnesota has a good bullpen but it's taxed. Their closer's pitched 3 of the last 4 days and all their high leverage guys have pitched at least 3 times in the last 5 days. If Lopez doesn't provide length the Giants should get a look at a lesser arm or two.

4:07PM EST: Angels ML +120 (5 Units).

LP: T. Anderson (LAA).

BAL SP Zach Eflin's been good but he's in the bottom 6% in Hard-Hit Rate and bottom 2% in strikeouts. He has a GO/AO of .57. He's getting a lot of outs through Hard-Hit balls in the Air. That's just not a sustainable formula for success. Angels stadium is 4th in HR park factor and there's 85° + Temps and 9 MPH winds blowing out straight to center today. The Angels are 3rd in baseball in AB/HR at Home. LAA SP Tyler Anderson has a 2.68 ERA with a 30.7% Hard-Hit Rate. He's recorded 4 straight Quality Starts and has a 2.66 ERA in 4 Home Starts. He's been hurt by the long ball in years past but this Orioles lineup has been miserable against LHP. They're dead last in BA (.177), 29th in OBP (.257), and last in SLG (.245). They're 28th in AB/HR (71) vs LHP.