Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/4/25)

MLB

5 Picks (17 Units).

1:15PM EST: (GAME 1) Cardinals ML +100 (4 Units)

LP: B. Tidwell (NYM) / E. Fedde (STL).

NYM SP Blade Tidwell is making his MLB debut today. He has a 5.0 ERA in 6 Minor League starts with a .250 opponent BA and 1.33 WHIP. He allowed 4 ER on 7 hits in his most recent minor league start. He allowed 4 Runs in each of his last 2 road starts. The Cardinals offense has been significantly better at Home, ranking 1st in BA and 4th in OPS. STL SP Erick Fedde was traded to the Cardinals from the White Sox last year. Since joining the Cardinals he's made 7 starts at Home and has a 3.23 ERA. 6 of the 7 were quality starts. He allowed 1 ER on 6 IP in each of his first 2 Home starts this year before laboring in his most recent. Between the CWS and STL he had a 1.94 ERA at Home in 2024. With this being the first of a double-header the best arms will only come out if leading. The Mets have the better bullpen but there's good odds the lesser arms follow Tidwell in this one, allowing STL to add on late.

1:35PM EST: Royals ML +120 (3 Units).

LP: M. Lorenzen (KC) / K. Gibson (BAL).

Lorenzen has a 3.48 ERA and 3.75 xERA. He's allowed 1 ER on 6 IP in each of his last 2 starts. He hasn't been as sharp on the road, but he's allowed 3ER or less in all but 1 start, and it was 4 ER. KC's elite bullpen is still in great shape with everyone available. They likely stay away from Lucas Ecerg as he's thrown 53 pitches in the last 5 days, but he's still thrown just once the last 3 days. BAL SP Kyle Gibson got hammered for 9 ER on 11 hits, 2 walks, and 5 homeruns across 3.2 IP in his 2025 debut against the Yankees. He had a 5.14 ERA in 2 Rehab Starts at Triple A. He's a veteran pitcher that will be better today than he was last week but he's still rounding into form. His pitch count isn't worked up enough yet either which means the O's not so great bullpen will get some work today.

1:35PM EST: Pirates F5 ML -125 (5 Units).

LP: S. Kolek (SD) / A. Heaney (PIT).

Stephen Kolek is making his 2025 debut, and first career start today. He had a 5.21 ERA in 42 relief appearances for the Padres last year. He has a 6.38 ERA with a .317 BA allowed and 1.54 WHIP in 5 AAA starts. He has a 13.0 ERA with a .413 BA allowed and 2.44 WHIP in his 2 road starts. He allowed 6 ER in one road start and 7 in another. The best he's done at AAA was a 4.23 ERA in 2023 and that was as a reliever. He simply isn't an MLB level pitcher at the moment.

PIT SP Andrew Heaney has a 2.5 ERA and a 3.52 xERA. Bit lucky but strong numbers regardless. His Hard-Hit Rate is 36.1 % and his BA allowed is just .181. The Cubs got to him at Home his last time out, but they lead the league in OPS against Lefties. He was burned by 2 run homers in the 4th and 5th innings. SD is worse against LHP than they are RHP. They're 13th in OPS vs LHP and 17th in AB/HR. Heaney allowed 1 ER on 7 IP in his first home start against the Yankees and 0 runs on 7.1 IP in his 2nd home start against the Nationals.

Huge bullpen advantage for the Padres and they likely call on it early. It's decently taxed and they start a 3-game set against the Yankees in New York tomorrow, so they'll let Kolek go for a bit. Given the mediocrity of the Pirates offense there's a very good chance they don't score the rest of the way once Kolek comes out though.

1:35PM EST: Rays ML +140 (3 Units).

LP: T. Bradley (TB) / W. Warren (NYY).

Taj Bradley has a 4.58 ERA but an xERA of 3.67. 4 of his 6 starts have been Quality. He struggled at Home against the Yankees in his 3rd career start against them a few weeks back. He's a young pitcher that will struggle with command at times. He walked 4 on 5.1 IP that day. In his other non-quality start he walked 4 on 5 IP. He has elite stuff and when he's on he's very tough to hit. He dominated the Yankees in his first 2 meetings against them in 2024. He allowed 1 ER on 6 IP at Home and then went into New York and tossed 7 shutout innings, allowing just 1 hit. The Rays got 7 innings out of Littell yesterday, so their elite bullpen is still in great shape. The Rays bullpen has dominated the Yankees through the first 2 games of this series minus 1 swing. It was by one of their worst relievers as they tried to get through the 5th when Pepiot left after 4.1 IP.

NYY SP Will Warren has a 5.63 ERA and an xERA of 4.69. Bit unlucky but his hard-hit rate of 50.7 % is in the bottom 5% of the MLB. He struggled in his start at Tampa, lasting just 1.2 IP on 53 pitches, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks. He hasn't pitched into the 6th inning yet this year and has allowed at least 2 runs in every start except for the 1 run he allowed against Tampa. He simply wouldn't be in the MLB if not for injuries. The miserable Rays offense has a path to plate a few runs in this one and the pitching to shut NY down once again.

4:10PM EST: Nationals ML -105 (3 Units).

LP: M. Gore (WSH) / N. Martinez (CIN).

Gore's developed into the frontline starter the Nationals were hoping for when they acquired him via trade for Juan Soto. He has a 3.5 ERA and an xERA of 3.28. He's striking out 35.8% of batters, among the top 5% in baseball. He's allowed 3ER or less in 6 of his 7 starts. The outlier being 4 ER at Miami, who have been good against Lefties. 5 of his 7 starts have also been quality starts. The Reds have been significantly worse vs LHP, batting .223 with a .690 OPS. The Nats few good relievers are also available and fresh with how this series has played out. They lost game 1 handedly and won game 2 handedly. The high leverage arms are good to follow Gore.

CIN SP Nick Martinez has a 4.68 ERA and a 4.33 xERA. He's a fly ball pitcher and struggles at Home in their HR friendly confines. He had a 4.0 ERA at Home last year compared to a 2.18 ERA on the road. He was primarily used as a reliever last season. So far this year he has a 4.32 ERA at Home, brought down by a quality start against STL his last time out. He allowed 4 Runs exactly in each of his first 2 Home starts. Washington's also been swinging the bats well for a few weeks now, plating 11 yesterday.