Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (5/3/25)

MLB

3 Picks (12 Units).

2:15PM EST: Cardinals ML +130 (4 Units) POSTPONED

LP: E. Fedde (STL).

NYM SP Tylor Megill has pitched very well for the Mets, but he's allowed 3 and 4 runs in his last 2 road starts. He has a history of road woes, posting a 4.8 ERA on the road in 2024, a 6.79 ERA in 2023, and a 5.84 ERA in 2022. The Cardinals offense has been significantly better at Home, ranking 1st in BA and 4th in OPS. STL SP Erick Fedde was traded to the Cardinals from the White Sox last year. Since joining the Cardinals he's made 7 starts at Home, has a 3.23 ERA, and 6 of them were quality starts. He allowed 1 ER on 6 IP in each of his first 2 Home starts this year before laboring in his most recent. Between the CWS and STL he had an 1.94 ERA at Home in 2024. The Cardinals only have a few good relievers and they're available having lost their last 2 games decisively.

7:05PM EST: Diamondbacks ML +105 (3 Units).

LP: B. Pfaadt (AZ) / A. Nola (PHI).

Pfaadt is 5-1 in 6 starts with a 2.78 ERA. He's been considerably better on the road throughout his career, sporting a 4.53 road ERA compared to a 5.06 ERA at Home. He had a 4.34 ERA in 16 road starts last year. He hasn't faced Philly since the 2023 NLCS, where he allowed just 2 combined ER on 9 IP across 2 starts. In 39 career plate appearances vs Pfaadt the Phillies have a .194 BA, .207 xBA, .248 wOBA, and .291 xwOBA. All exceptional numbers.

PHI SP Aaron Nola turned in a good one his last time out with the wind blowing in at Wrigley but he's struggled most of this season. He has a 5.4 ERA with an xERA of 4.56 so a little tough luck. He has a 7.15 ERA in 2 starts at Home this season. Arizona's also had his number, scoring 4 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games against them. The Diamondbacks had 10 hits last night and 9 of them against Luzardo. They just failed to come through with the big hit. They do lead the league in OPS vs Right-Handed Pitching and Ketel Marte picked up right where he left off in his return yesterday, recording a couple hard-hit balls and 1 hit. The Phillies bullpen has also been very bad and they used their top arms in yesterday's 3-2 win.

7:15PM: Royals ML -105 (5 Units).

LP: K. Bubic (KC) / T. Sugano (BAL).

KC SP Kris Bubic started his MLB career as a starter before getting relegated to bullpen duty. He excelled in the bullpen and made the switch back to starter this year. It's been a success, posting a 2.25 ERA through 6 starts. They've kept him in the low 90 pitch count and he's working on an extra days rest today so his arm should be feeling fine. With KC losing yesterday they were able to give their top arms some rest. It's a bullpen that's been lights out and a huge reason they've won 9 of their last 11 games. Bubic may be able to provide some length here too. Against LHP Baltimore's dead last in BA, 2nd to last in OBP, last in SLG, and last in OPS. They're hitting just .172 vs LHP and that's on 309 at bats.

The Orioles T. Sugano has a nice 3.0 ERA, but he has an xERA of 5.69. His Hard-Hit Rate is 40.9 % which by itself isn't terrible but it is when you K-Rate is in the bottom 5% of MLB. It means he's getting a lot of loud outs, and his GO/AO ratio is .95 so it's not like he's keeping the ball down at least. His xSLG is also in the bottom 7% of MLB. KC hasn't been great offensively this season but during this hot streak they're right at league average in OBP and top 10 in BA. Baltimore's bullpen has also been a disaster and KC got a look at their setup and closer in last night's loss.