Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/20/25)

MLB

3 Picks (10 Units).

6:45PM EST: Nationals ML +155 (4 Units).

LP: S. Strider (ATL) / M. Parker (WSH).

ATL SP Spencer Strider returns from the IL tonight without making any rehab starts. He started the season in the minors rehabbing from Tommy John. His lone MLB start this year came on April 16th and he ended up on the IL with a hamstring strain just a few days later. He wasn't his usual self in that outing, throwing just 58 of his 97 pitches for strikes. Strider has a 4.55 career ERA vs Washington and a 4.64 ERA in 4 career starts at Nationals Park. His last two starts of 2023 came against Washington. He allowed 4 ER on 5.2 IP @ WSH in the first one and 3 ER on 5 IP in the 2nd. He's made just 3 MLB regular season starts since then. They'll be more cautious with Strider today. Atlanta's bullpen is fresh and ranks 13th in ERA. Closer Raisel Iglesias has allowed at least 1 run in 4 of his last 5 outings though. The Nationals have scored 10 runs exactly in each of their last 2 games.

WSH SP Mitchell Parker has a 3.38 ERA in 5 starts at Home. Some tough luck in his most recent outing against these Braves in Atlanta his last time out. He left the game after getting hit in the leg by a comebacker with 2 outs and 2 men on in the 5th. Both of those men came into score, and he finished with 4 ER on 4 hits and 2 walks across 4.2 IP. That was his 3rd career start against the Braves. He recorded a quality start in each of his first two. The Braves have a .181 BA and .213 wOBA in 61 career plate appearances against Parker. Atlanta's still struggling against Lefties, batting .214 with a .646 OPS. The Nationals bullpen has also been much better of late. Over the last 30 days Andrew Chafin has a 1.59 ERA, Jackson Rutledge a 2.13 ERA, Cole Henry a 3.38 ERA, and Closer Kyle Finnegan a 3.86 ERA. Finnegan's 14/16 in SVO this season and a perfect 5/5 in May.

6:45PM EST: Mets/RedSox Over 8.5 (3 Units).

For starters these two combined to go 2 for 19 with RISP yesterday. They combined for 23 Hard-Hit balls and 7 walks. A lot of quality at bats with little to show for it.

NYM SP Clay Holmes has a 3.14 ERA on the season but a 4.0 ERA through 3 May Starts. He allowed 4 ER on 7 hits and 1 BB across 6 IP his last time out. The Pirates registered 12 Hard-Hit balls against him. Fortunately for Holmes those 12 Hard-Hit balls resulted in 8 outs or that's a much uglier start. Holmes was with the Yankees for the last 4 years, so the Red Sox are plenty familiar with him. He has decent numbers against them, sporting a 3.54 ERA on 20 relief appearances. This is his first career start vs BOS and that’s a much taller order.

BOS SP Walker Buehler returns from a 3-week IL stint today. He was dealing with shoulder inflammation and hasn't made any rehab starts. The Mets have 84 career plate appearances with a modest .250 xBA but a strong xSLG of .491 and xwOBA of .353. They'll make him work today and he's failed to pitch past the 5th inning in half of his starts this year. They won't push Buehler in a return from the IL and Boston's bullpen isn't great. They got the job done yesterday using their top arms, but half of the Mets 12 Hard-Hit balls came against the Red Sox bullpen.

7:05PM EST: Yankees Runline -1.5 -105 (3 Units).

LP: P. Corbin (TEX)

Patrick Corbin has a 3.35 ERA and an xERA of 4.23. It's a complete 180 considering he was the worst starter in baseball these past 4 years. We're still not buying it, and the seams have started coming undone. He allowed 3 ER on 4 hits, 2 HR, 1 HBP, and 1 BB across 6 IP to the Rockies at Home his last time out. He was good in the previous outing, allowing 2 ER on 3 hits and 4 walks across 7 IP @ DET. There are some command issues of late, something that wasn't there in 4 April starts. The Yankees lead the league in OBP and OPS vs LHP and they're 2nd in AB/HR. It's just not a great match-up for him. Even if he's decent he likely doesn't provide length, and the Rangers bullpen has struggled. The majority of their bullpen has an ERA above 4 over the last 30 days and they just lost their 2nd best reliever to injury.

NYY SP Will Warren has done a good job filling in for injury. He has a 4.61 ERA and an xERA of 4.23. He's given the Yankees a chance to win in all but 1 of his 9 starts really. He allowed 2 ER on 5 IP @ SEA his last time out and 1 ER on 7.1 IP @ ATH the start before that. So he is rolling with a bit of momentum here. Nobody in the Rangers lineup has faced Warren before. The Rangers have also scored just 12 runs in their last 4 games. The Yankees bullpen has climbed up to 9th in ERA and their top half has been lights out the past few weeks. The Devin Williams demotion has gone a long way for New York. It's a lightly taxed Yankees bullpen with a closer that's thrown just 2 pitches the last 5 days.runs in their last 4 games. The Yankees bullpen has climbed up to 9th in ERA ad their top half has been lights out the past few weeks. The Devin Williams demotion has gone a long way for New York. It's a lightly taxed Yankees bullpen with a closer that's thrown just 2 pitches the last 5 days.