Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/18/25)

MLB

4 Picks (13 Units).

1:35PM EST: Orioles -1.5 +110 (3 Units).

LP: M. Soroka (WSH) / Z. Eflin (BAL).

Soroka has a 6.43 ERA through 3 starts and has yet to pitch past the 5th inning. The Nationals bullpen is terrible and still managed to give up 4 runs yesterday despite getting 6.1 innings from starter Jake Irvin. It's a bad bullpen that's still heavily taxed despite light use yesterday. Not going to see great arms once Soroka gets pulled. BAL SP Zach Eflin has a 3.13 ERA through 4 starts. He came off the IL last Sunday and allowed 2 ER on 5 IP at LAA. He only threw 83 pitches and is working on extended rest. He had a 2.6 ERA in 9 starts for the Orioles last year after being acquired at the deadline. He also hasn't allowed more than 3 runs at Home for Baltimore. The Nationals bats put up 6 runs on Kyle Gibson in the first inning yesterday but scored just 4 the rest of the way and against the bottom half of a very bad bullpen. Orioles top arms are fresh and rested to back Eflin today.

1:35PM EST: Pirates -1.5 +145 (3 Units).

LP: P. Skenes (PIT) / Mick Abel (PHI).

Skenes is nasty and has dominated some of the best offenses in baseball in his last 4 starts. Going back he's allowed 1 ER on 6 IP @ NYM, 2 ER on 6 IP @ STL, 3 ER on 5 IP vs CHC, and 0 ER on 6.1 IP @ LAD. The Cubs and Cardinals are division rivals and have plenty of prior at bats against him at this point. The Phillies on the other hand have 0 career plate appearances against Skenes. It's a tall order and Skenes rarely gets touched on the road as it is. He has a 1.47 ERA through 5 road starts this year and had a 1.32 ERA in 11 road starts last year. The Pirates setup and closer have a 1.93 and 2.31 ERA over the last 30 days. They're also a combined 4 for 4 in save opportunities. They're fresh having pitched just once over the last 5 days and it came back on Wednesday.

The Pirates offense has been miserable but PHI SP Mick Abel is making his MLB debut. He was the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft and really struggled throughout the minors up until this season. He has a 2.53 ERA in 8 AAA starts. He's had major command issues and while it's been better, it's still there. He's issued 19 walks with 1 HBP in 46.1 IP. He's walked at least 2 batters in 7 of his 8 starts. It's a big moment making his MLB debut in front of the Philly faithful. This isn't some small market team. He'll be battling some nerves and that never helps with command. The Phillies bullpen is also terrible and they don't get a day off until May 26th. If Skenes is dealing and they're trailing, lesser arms will come out.

2:20PM EST: White Sox ML +240 (3 Units).

No Listed Pitchers.

CWS SP Jonathon Gannon has a 2.0 ERA through 3 May games. The White Sox used an opener before his last game so it wasn't start. He still went 6 innings and has done so in 4 straight games without allowing more than 3 runs. 3 of his last 4 starts have come on the road and the White Sox are 3-1 in his last 4 games. The Cubs have just 2 career at bats against Gannon. He's a fly ball pitcher and projects well today with heavy winds blowing in at Wrigley. The White Sox don't have many good relievers but having dropped 3 straight games the couple we want out there are available.

CHC SP Colin Rea is in the midst of a career year but at 34 we aren't exactly buying it. Best he's done on a season is mid to low 4 ERA ad he's sporting a career 4.42 ERA in 103 games and 82 starts. He has a 2.48 ERA but an xERA of 3.85. The Wheels have also started to come off a bit here in May. He has a 4.08 ERA in 3 May starts with an opponent BA of .281 and a WHIP of 1.36. 2 of those 3 starts have still been quality but he's allowed 2 runs or more in each. 2 of his 3 May starts have come against the Pirates and Marlins. Offenses that are just as bad as the White Sox. The Cubs bullpen has pitched better of late but they're still 20th in ERA and without one of their best arms today.

7:10PM EST: NYM/NYY Over 8.5 (4 Units).

LP: D. Peterson (NYM).

David Peterson has a 3.04 ERA but an xERA of 4.41. His Hard-Hit rate of 51.9% is among the bottom 4% in baseball. He has a modest K-Rate but does a great job keeping the ball down which is why his stuff plays. His command has also been off through 2 May starts. He walked 3 vs PIT, and 4 @ AZ. He's also allowed a HR in each of those 2 starts. The Hard-Hit balls are going to cost him at some point, and this is just the spot for it. The Yankees lead the league in BA, OBP, and SLG against Lefties. They also lead the league in walks on the season. He made 1 start against the Yankees at Home last season. He avoided damage but he walked 5, plunked 2, and allowed 3 hits all on 4.1 IP.

NYY SP Max Fried has a 1.11 ERA but an xERA of 3.59. He lasted just 5 innings in his most recent start at Seattle. He'll likely get stuck battling again today. The Mets have 215 career plate appearances against Fried with an xBA of .255 and .318 xWOBA. The Yankees bullpen has been better, but it still isn't great. The Mets have also seen every Yankees reliever outside Ian Hamilton in this series.