Major League Players Club MLB 1-5 Units (5/17/25)

MLB

4 Picks (15 Units).

4:05PM EST: National/Orioles Over 10.5 (4 Units).

LP: K. Gibson (BAL)

WSH SP Jake Irvin is respectable on the road, but he's gotten lucky of late. He has a 4.0 ERA and an xERA of 5.76. His Hard-Hit % and K % both rank in the bottom 10% of baseball. Even if he turns in a decent start the Nats 29th ranked bullpen is heavily taxed. Mackenzie Gore recorded just 11 outs yesterday. Washington has all of 3 decent relievers outside closer Kyle Finnegan and only one of them is available today. Even he's thrown 3 of the last 4 days. BAL SP Kyle Gibson has a 13.11 ERA and an xERA of 8.26. He has yet to pitch past the 4th inning in a start this year. Baltimore's bullpen ranks 26th in ERA and it was their best arms that blew last night's game. Great hitting weather with 85° Temps and 13 MPH winds blowing out to right.

6:40PM EST: Reds ML +105 (3 Units).

LP: S. Cecconi (CLE).

CLE SP Slade Cecconi is making his Guardians debut. He had a 6.66 ERA in 20 games and 13 starts for Arizona last year. He has a 4.85 ERA in 3 minor league starts this year. He's a fly ball pitcher and this is a terrible venue for him. Cinci has the most HR friendly ballpark in baseball, and it'll be 75° with 14 MPH winds blowing out. Cleveland's bullpen hasn't been nearly as dominant as years past either. Gaddin/Clase have been elite in the setup/closer roles of late but that's about it. They're 18th in bullpen ERA this season.

CIN is opening with Brent Suter (2.08 ERA) and patching it together. Likely see Graham Ashcraft (2.45 ERA) for multiple innings after him. The Reds bullpen is 9th in ERA on the season. They also have 4 other relievers with an ERA below 1.69 over the last 30 days. The Guardians’ offense is last in BA and 28th in OPS over the last week.

7:05PM EST: Astros/Rangers Under 8.5 (3 Units).

LP: R. Blanco (HOU) / T. Mahle (TEX).

HOU SP Ronel Blanco was one of baseball's best pitchers last year. He got off to a bit of a shaky start, but he's still allowed 3ER or less and gone at least 5 innings in 7 of his 8 starts this year. He's fresh off 8 shutout innings and has recorded a quality start in 3 of his last 4 outings. He was also a road warrior in 2024, posting a 2.36 ERA in 14 starts. The Rangers offense is batting .220 with a .698 OPS over the last week. They're 27th in OPS at Home and have scored 18 combined runs in their last 5 games. TEX has an xBA of .222 and xWOBA of .308 in 75 career plate appearances vs Blanco. Houston's bullpen is 2nd in ERA.

TEX SP Tyler Mahle has a 1.47 ERA through 9 starts and a .84 ERA in 6 Home Starts. He's allowed more than 1 run twice this season and it was 2 runs on the road both times. He's also pitched 6 innings or more in 4 straight home starts. The length's important as the Rangers bullpen is 16th in ERA but a little banged up. Their best reliever and closer are both fresh and rested though.

9:05PM EST: Athletics/Giants Under 8.5 (5 Units).

LP: L. Severino (ATH) / L. Roupp (SF).

Severino's coming off a rough start at Home against the Yankees. That's his former ball club and he's struggled at Home. He has a .95 ERA in 3 road starts and it doesn't get much more pitcher friendly than Oracle Park. The Giants roster has a .174 xBA and .254 xWOBA in 67 career plate appearances against Severino. The few good relievers the A's have are still primed to follow up a good start. The meat of their pen came out and got hit hard once again yesterday after Sears struggled early. Their high leverage arms just haven't gotten the work and will have to pitch just to pitch. Stud closer Mason Miller hasn't seen action in a week.

SF SP Landon Roupp continues to induce weak contact. His Hard-Hit % is in the top 8% of baseball and his xERA is 3.42. Part of Roupp's tough luck statistics stem from the Venue's. 6 of his 8 starts have come on the road this season. He has a 3.72 ERA through 2 Home starts and hasn't allowed a HR. The Athletics have no former at bats against Roupp and they've now scored 2 runs or less in 4 of their last 7 games, 3 or less in 5 of those 7. SF's bullpen leads the league in ERA.