Major League Players Club MLB 1-3 Units (5/9/25)

MLB

4 Picks (12 Units).

6:40PM EST: Pirates ML +130 (3 Units).

LP: B. Elder (ATL) / B. Falter (PIT).

Pittsburgh just fired their manager and with the way they were playing that's nothing but a positive. At the very least there's a renewed sense of purpose and energy in the building. PIT SP Bailey Falter had a 3.98 ERA in 14 Home Starts last year and a 4.0 ERA through 3 Home Starts this year. He struggled in his first home start against the Yankees, one of the best Lineups in baseball and specifically vs LHP. In his last 2 Home starts he's combined to allow just 1 Run on 4 hits and 3 walks across 14 IP. The Braves offense is 21st in OPS over the last week and they're 23rd in OPS vs LHP on the season. The Pirates do have a couple good relievers and they're fresh to back Falter. ATL SP Bryce Elder has a 5.06 ERA through 6 starts and a 6.19 ERA in his 3 road starts.

7:10PM EST: Cubs ML +125 (3 Units).

LP: J. Taillon (CHC).

Taillon has some significant Home/Away splits since joining Chicago and it has to do with the wind. He's a fly ball pitcher that'll get hurt by the long ball and the wind's commonly blowing in at Wrigley. There isn't great hitting weather at Citi Field tonight, sub 60° with 9MPH winds blowing in from Left. He's allowed 2 runs exactly in each of his last 3 road starts and 3 ER or less in every start outside of his first this season. In 75 career plate appearances against Taillon the current Mets roster has a .162 BA and .206 wOBA. NYM SP Clay Holmes has been tough, but he's pitched into the 6th inning 3 times this year and completed it twice. He allowed 3 runs on 6 IP in one and 4 runs on 5.1 IP in another. The outlier was 6 innings of 1 run ball against a Cardinals offense that can't travel. Even if he's sharp the Cubs will get a crack at other pitchers and they're 3rd in OPS on the season. Holmes did allow 8 hits and 9 hard-hit balls in his most recent start.

8:40PM EST: Padres/Rockies Over 11.5 (3 Units).

LP: R. Vasquez (SD) / A. Senzatela (COL).

Vasquez has an xERA of 6.11 on the season. He has a 5.4 ERA through 4 road starts and had a 6.07 ERA in 12 road starts last year. He made his one and only Coors Field start in 2024 and allowed 4 Runs on 2.2 IP. COL SP Antonio Senzatela has been hammered all season. He has a 5.5 ERA and 7.01 xERA. His strikeout % is among the worst in baseball, as is his wOBA. The current Padres roster has a .321 BA and .363 wOBA in 86 career plate appearances against him too. Each of the Rockies’ last 3 games have gone over this total. With little help from them in the double-header yesterday but they did plate 6 runs 3 games back.

9:38PM EST: Angels ML +125 (3 Units).

LP: T. Sugano (BAL) / K. Hendricks (LAA).

Sugano has a 3.0 ERA but an xERA of 5.45. He doesn't generate many strikeouts, doesn't keep the ball down, and gets hit hard. He struggles with the long ball and that's something the Angels do well. They're 6th in AB/HR in May and 4th at Home on the season. It's a nice hot day with the wind blowing out in Anaheim. The Angels offense is also swinging it well, plating 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. LAA SP Kyle Hendricks isn't blowing anyone away and makes a living inducing weak contact. His 29.8% Hard-Hit rate is among the top 6% in baseball. His opponent BA of .220 is great but his walk rate is up from years past. He'll dance around the corners looking for hitters to expand the zone. Baltimore is aggressive at the plate and as such rank just 28th in walks this season. Hendricks is coming off a dominant performance, limiting the Tigers to just 1 run on 7.2 IP. A Tigers offense that's 2nd in OPS over the last 15 days. The Orioles are 19th in OPS over the last week and have scored just 11 runs in their last 5 games.