Major League Players Club MLB 4-5 Units (3/27/25)

MLB

7 Picks (24 Units)

3:05PM EST: Brewers ML +125 (3 Units).

Neither SP had a great spring although Freddy turned in more quality performances. Peralta's going on his 5th year as a member of Milwaukee's rotation, and he's been sharp in his debut's. Of the 4 previous opening starts he has 2 shutout performances and another in which he allowed just 1 run. Rodon wouldn't be the Yankees Opening Day starter if Cole were healthy. Decent chance he wouldn't be if Luis Gil was healthy too. He's also a bit of a head case and struggles in the big moment. It's only spring training and there's plenty of at bats from guys who won't make an impact, but the Yanks hit .181 with a .628 OPS over their last 5 spring training games. Brewers were more respectable at .275 and .778. Peralta's a Cy Young candidate who's more than capable of shutting down a Yankees lineup that's Aaron Judge and company. Brewers also have a loaded bullpen that finished 2nd in ERA last season. The Yankees current closer was also with the Brewers last year so that added familiarity will be interesting if he’s called upon in this one.

4:05PM EST: Red Sox First 5 ML -130 (2 Units).

Garrett Crochet has allowed 1ER on 15.2 IP while striking out 30 batters this spring. He worked up to 90 pitches in his most recent outing and should be good to go 5 innings today. Boston's bullpen is the weakness of the team as they deal with some injuries. TEX SP Nathan Eovaldi was better in his most recent outing, but he posted a 5.54 ERA in spring. He makes a living keeping the ball down, but he's been giving up a ton of fly balls and that doesn't play well at Globe Life Field, a very HR friendly ballpark. The Red Sox current roster has a .314 BA in 77 career plate appearances against him.

4:10PM EST: Mets/Astros Under 8 (3 Units).

Clay Holmes is back to a starter role after closing for the Yankees these past few seasons. He's been elite each of the past few seasons and if he runs into trouble as a starter it likely comes late in the year when the innings start to add up. He's made 5 spring starts and allowed just 2 ER, good for a .93 ERA. HOU SP Framber Valdez is one of the best pitchers in baseball and posted a 2.53 ERA at Minute Maid Park last year. He's also stretched out for 90 pitches. Plenty of decent bullpen arms to hold this down once starters get pulled.

4:10PM EST: Giants ML -110 (3 Units).

SF SP Logan Webb had a 1.77 ERA in 5 spring starts. He went 5.2 IP in his most recent spring start and 5 innings the start before that. He's a heavy sinkerballer that rarely gives up the long ball. Most people think of Coors Field when it comes to Homeruns but it's the Reds Great American Ball Park that's the most HR Friendly. In 85 career Plate Appearances the Reds have .225 BA against Webb. CIN SP Hunter Greene had a 5.57 ERA in 6 spring starts. He allowed 3 ER on 5IP in his most recent and 2 ER on 4 IP the start before that. He's also a fly ball pitcher that allowed 9 HR in 14 Home Starts last season and 12 Homeruns in 8 Home Starts in 2023. He gave up 4 Homeruns in spring training. The Giants play in the least HR friendly ballpark so finishing 2024 16th in Homeruns last year says something. It comes as no surprise they were 5th in total homeruns in away games. A lot of pop in this Giants lineup and just the ballpark for it.

4:10PM EST: Marlins ML +125 (3 Units).

Paul Skenes is nasty and likely finds himself in Cy Young contention, but Sandy Alcantara won a Cy Young in 2022. He had to get Tommy John and missed the entire 2024 season. He's made 5 spring training starts, allowing 0 ER on a .220 opponent BA and .97 WHIP. Both lineups suck but the Pirates had a .145 BA and .410 OPS in their last 4 spring training games. Over their last 12 games it's a .213 BA and .616 OPS. These two actually finished tied 23rd in OPS for spring training but the Pirates have cooled considerably. Neither team's bullpen is elite but the Marlins do have a few reliable arms if Alcantara gives them a good start. Public's pouring money all over Paul Skene's and the Pirates but you have to score runs to win games.

7:10PM EST: Tigers ML +143 (5 Units).

Tarik Skubal could be starting against an All-Star team and getting Detroit at +145 would still be good value. The Tigers bullpen finished 5th in ERA last season, and they've retained multiple key pieces. LAs had just 38 career plate appearances against Skubal and they have a .194 BA. Skubal posted a 2.33 ERA in spring and tossed 6 innings of 1 run ball in his final dress rehearsal. The Dodgers will hit LHP just fine this year, but their best bets are left-handed. Skubal’s allowed a career OPS of .555 vs LHB. LAD SP Blake Snell is a habitually slow starter. He has a career 3.98 ERA before the All-Star Break and a 2.32 ERA after the Break. That's on 200 starts and not some small sample. He's made 2 spring training starts, and 1 exhibition start over in Japan. He gave up 4ER on 3.2 IP vs the A's in his final spring start. Then in his exhibition start against Japan's NPB he allowed 3ER on 4.1 IP. Detroit also had a very strong spring vs LHP, batting .270 with an .823 OPS.

10:10PM EST: Athletics ML +150 (5 Units).

Luis Severino was a frontline Ace for the majority of his Yankees career, and he was still that guy in the majority of his Starts for the Mets last year, allowing 3ER or less in 20 of his 31 starts. He's been very sharp in spring, allowing just 2 ER on 14 IP (1.29 ERA). He issued just 1 walk with a BA against of .176. There's also a lot less pressure pitching for the A's compared to the Yankees or even the Mets. He's struggled in big spots throughout his career but this isn't one of them. The A's don't have the deepest bullpen but Mason Miller could very well finish the season as the best closer in baseball. He's not even in the top 3 of the A's best relievers through spring training either. SEA SP Logan Gilbert has cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, but he doesn't look quite right. He finished spring with a 6.0 ERA in 5 starts. He struggles with the long ball, allowing 26 homeruns last year and 29 the season before that. He's given up 5 home runs in spring training and all over his last 3 starts. The one thing the A's offense was good at last year was hitting homeruns. They finished 8th in Homeruns and 6th in Homeruns on the road. It's pretty much the same cast as last year and they finished spring 11th in Homeruns.