Gridiron Player Club NFL Futures 1-5 Units (8/13/24)

NFL 4 Picks.

PICKS WILL CONTINUE TO GET ADDED TO THIS POST.

(LAC) Justin Herbert Under 3,575 Passing Yards (3 Units).

Herbert just lost his 3 favorite targets since entering the league. No more Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or Austin Ekeler. He also lost his top receiving TE Gerald Everrett. We're quite bullish on the Chargers offense and think Herbert will have one of his most efficient seasons despite the loses, it's just going to look different. With Jim Harbaugh as head coach this Chargers team is going to run the football. They used the 5th overall pick on offensive tackle Joe Alt. Then in FA signed a Center, two run blocking tight ends, and a big back in Gus Edwards. Harbaugh's brining old school football back to LA and they will pound the rock as a run first team with former Ravens OC Greg Roman calling the shots. The Run/Pass ratio will be much more balanced, limiting his attempts, but running the ball will also shorten the game. Too long has Herbert had to play catchup as their defense gets torched. Chargers have a great DC in Jesse Minter and plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

NE Patriots Over 4.5 Wins -125 (3 Units).

The Patriots defense is going to be good enough to get them 5 wins. This team ranked 6th in yards allowed in 2023 and that's despite an offense that was 30th in YPG. Most of their 2023 defensive talent does return. Yes, Bill Belichick is gone but the immediate replacement doesn't get much better than Jerod Mayo. Mayo was Belichick’s 10th overall pick in 2008 and led NE's defense for 9 years. Belichick tried for years to get him onto his coaching staff, and he finally did in 2019. He's been a NE assistant coach since and named HC this year. Mayo also hired from within the organization for his Defensive Coordinator role. Demarcus Covington enters his 8th season with New England. From an X's and O's standpoint not much is going to change. There really isn’t a defensive transition at all.

Offensively the Patriots will likely struggle. It's either Veteran QB Jacoby Brissett or Rookie Drake Maye under center. Could even see rookie Joe Milton as some point if those 2 struggle. Regardless these QB's will have more talent to work with than last year's squad. They drafted WR Ja'Lynn Polk 37th overall and signed veteran RB Antonio Gibson and TE Austin Hooper. They have an extremely talented RB in Rhamondre Stevenson already. Belichick’s offensive malpractice is what ultimately got him fired. QB Mac Jones had to learn a new offense every year he was under center and didn’t have a single receiving threat to work with. The Youth at QB will at least provide some mobility and play-making ability, something Mac Jones never had. They don't need to be good, just good enough to win 5 games. Christian Watson Over 5.5 Touchdowns (3 Units).

Watson scored 7 touchdowns in 14 games in 2022, and 5 touchdowns in 9 games in 2023. His health has been his biggest issue. He's had nagging Hamstring injuries since entering the league, but he's found out why. It was a muscle imbalance between his two hamstrings, causing one to work harder than the other. He's addressed it all off-season and continues to do so. Sports Science has come a long way. His explosiveness and play-making ability is unquestioned when he's out on the field. We like him to get enough snaps to push him over this total. With Aaron Jones no longer in town it opens up more targets for receivers and tight ends.

Keon Coleman Over 4.5 Touchdowns.

The 33rd overall selection fills an immediate need at WR for Buffalo after shipping off leading WR Stefon Diggs (8 TDs in 2023) to Houston and letting 2nd leading receiver Gabe Davis (7 TDs) walk in FA. Coleman doesn't have the flashy 40-Time as other top prospects, but he still plays at an elite game speed. One of his greatest assets are his mitts. He's a big physical receiver with strong hands and that's what plays in the redzone. The other often overlooked area for wide receivers is blocking ability. Coleman's one hell of a run blocker and that keeps you on the field, especially in the Red Zone. Rookie growing pains or not the Bills WR room is so lackluster behind him he'll be allowed to play through it. If he adjusts quickly, he can blow past this TD total but even in a rough rookie season he'll compete for this. Josh Allen has to throw Touchdowns to somebody.